ROOF Blog archive

A CONTROVERSIAL NEW LAW in Scotland that could see people lose their homes over £3,001 worth of unsecured debt was passed in the Scottish Parliament yesterday after the executive ignored last-minute pleas from opposition MSPs and charities. Go here or here for more details.

The Bankruptcy & Diligence Etc (Scotland) Bill means creditors can apply for a land attachment order against people with more than £3,000 of unsecured debt. If the debt is not repaid within six months the home or land can be sold.

Campaigners said the law would force people into the hands of loan sharks and increase homelessness.

But the executive said it was fairer than existing legislation. It had compromised by increasing the limit from £1,500 but refused an amendment that would have exempted homes and promised the new law would be used sparingly with a review after two years.

TRUST KEN LOACH to inject a bit of politics into the Cathy Come Home anniversary. Interviewed on the Today Programme this morning, the director took issue with the idea that governments only have limited influence. ‘We’ve chosen to have a market economy that produces homelessness,’ he told John Humphrys.

‘Government can have a housing policy. Government can democratically decided to build homes. We used to do it. It was called council housing.’

Humphrys later pressed housing minister Yvette Cooper to endorse Shelter’s call for an extra 20,000 social rented homes a year. Go here for that (don’t expect much new) and here for an interview with Shelter, which has launched a Wall of Shame for people to sign on the South Bank in London.

PROTECT THE COUNTRYSIDE by building more homes in inner cities. That’s the unsurprising message today from the Campaign to Protect Rural England.

Actually, the message is a bit more sophisticated than that: a plea for ‘compact communities’ and to rehabilitate the idea of high-density housing after the disasters of the 1960s and 1970s. The second edition of the CPRE’s Compact Sustainable Communities contains lots of useful guidance on how excellence in design and construction can help build communities and on how to apply those in the planning system.

Timing of the publication is no accident. The government is expected to publish the new PPS3 planning policy on housing soon.

AN OPINION SURVEY published today by the BBC reveals some worrying public attitudes towards homelessness on the 40th anniversary of Cathy Come Home:

• Twice as many people would feel sympathetic to a homeless dog as to a homeless person with mental health or drug addiction problems or a homeless illegal immigrant
• 41% think homeless people do not want to be housed
• 50% think they refuse to help themselves
• 53% think giving money to beggars does more harm than good.

Against that, a quarter of people (rising to a third of 25-34 year olds) are worried about always having a roof over their heads and two thirds worry about not always being able to pay their rent or mortgage.

The BBC’s No Home season runs all this week on tv and radio. Go here for details of programmes.

TENANTS IN WALES are proving to be much more positive about stock transfer than their counterparts in Scotland. Two ballots this month have ended in ‘yes’ votes.

In Rhondda Cynon Taf, they voted 58% in favour of a move to RCT Homes on a 55% turnout. Earlier, tenants in Monmouthshire voted 60% for a transfer to Monmouthshire Housing on a 67% turnout.

Ballots so far in Wales have gone 4-1 in favour of transfer. Bridgend was the first to vote yes but the policy was overwhelmingly rejected in Wrexham. Ballots in Swansea and Torfaen are expected early next year.

For in depth analysis of transfer in Wales, read the article by Kevin Morgan and Bob Smith of Cardiff University in the next issue of ROOF (published mid December).

International comparison of house prices between 1997 and 2005

AN EXTRA 40,000 HOMES will be built in the London part of the Thames Gateway under an interim plan announced by communities secretary Ruth Kelly today. The plan envisages 160,000 homes rather than the previous 120,000, with the extra 40,000 being built on sites identified by the Greater London Assembly as suitable for development.

Under the plan:

35% of the homes will be ‘affordable’

AT LAST, some positive news about social housing. A major Rowntree report published today shows that the fortunes of unpopular estates can not just be turned around but that the gap between them and neighbouring areas can also be narrowed. Go here for a summary and here to download a PDF of the full report.

Researchers at the London School of Economics looked at progress on 20 unpopular estates in England over the 25 years between 1980 and 2005. Based on interviews with housing managers and residents conducted in the 1980s, 1990s and last year, it concludes that most of them have turned the tide: 16 had seen continuing improvements since 1995; two were facing major redevelopment; and two had seen progress halted or reversed.

The report shows that improvements in housing management, diversification of ownership and capital investment have had a positive impact. Resident satisfaction levels were close to the average for social housing, housing management performance had improved and fewer homes were empty.

The improvements were underpinned by wider economic and social changes. Unemployment on the estates fell from 34% of residents in 1991 to 16% in 2001. GCSE performance at schools linked to the estates improved faster than the national average between 1994 and 2004.

However, the report also warns against complacency and cautions that some of the improvements may be linked to high national employment rates and a strong housing market, which may not be sustained. In addition, while unemployment has fallen, the proportion of residents who are economically inactive has risen.

TENANTS IN SOUTH KESTEVEN have rejected stock transfer by a vote of almost 3-1. On a 76% turnout, 73% of the Lincolnshire authority’s tenants opted to stay with the council against 27% in favour of transfer.

However, tenants in Watford voted narrowly (54.5%) in favour of transfer to Watford Community Housing Trust to become only the second community gateway transfer in the country.

The South Kesteven vote generated a classic ‘every cloud has a silver lining’ quote – and a message for the government that could have come from any of the local authorities where tenants have rejected transfer – from Frances Cartwright, the portfolio member for housing:

‘I am sorry that the twelve hundred tenants who voted for transfer will not have this opportunity, and that the district has been denied the 250 new affordable homes that the transfer would have provided. It is clear that the over-whelming majority of tenants have given a resounding vote of confidence in the management of their homes by the council and as the portfolio-holder I take great satisfaction in this.

‘So long as the government continues to siphon away nearly five million pounds every year from the money we collect in rent we will continue to face some very hard choices if we are to prevent the housing service going into deficit. The council will do all it can to respect the tenants wishes and provide them with the best possible service. Now that the tenants have voted so clearly I hope that the government will also step-up to the mark and deliver the reforms to the housing finance system that our tenants deserve.’

Officials and councillors in Watford clearly felt vindicated in going for a community gateway transfer that gives more say to tenants and leaseholders.

WORRIED BY rising interest rates? Why not spread your payments over a longer period? According to a new survey, lenders are offering mortgages running for up to 57 years boasting more affordable monthly payments. The only catch, according to mortgage brokers, is that a borrower with a £150,000 mortgage over 57 years would end up paying £120,000 more in interest than one with a 25-year loan.

The Bank’s move was no surprise and the Council of Mortgage Lenders warned borrowers to expect another increase early next year. Also today, the Halifax said annual house price inflation is now running at 8.6% after a 1.7% increase in October alone.

CONSUMER PROBLEMS with housing debt rose 20% last year, according to Citizens Advice statistics published yesterday on people needing its help.

The charity dealt with 127,000 housing debt problems – including problems with mortgages, secured loans and rent arrears – in 2005/06. Nearly 10,000 of these were people threatened with repossession and 2,000 facing actual repossession or eviction. The rate of increase in housing debt problems was almost double the 11% increase in overall cases dealt with by its advice bureaux. They also dealt with 45% more cases of householders with council tax debt problems.

Chief executive David Harker said:

“We are particularly concerned by the sharp rise in enquiries from people getting behind with mortgage payments and having trouble paying council tax, gas and electricity bills, at a time when court action that can lead to repossession is on the increase, and fuel prices are rising steeply. This is likely to lead to more people than ever experiencing the sort of serious debt problems our advisers are already seeing day in day out.”

IT SOUNDS LIKE something from the 1960s but the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit is actually part of the government’s response to the Barker report, an attempt to ‘strengthen the market evidence base and analysis currently available to regional planning bodies’ and ‘help to ensure that new homes identified in regional plans have a positive impact on improving housing affordability’.

The unit will comprise a six-person board (academics Stephen Nickell, Glen Bramley and Paul Cheshire, former CML deputy chief executive Peter Williams and regeneration specialists Max Steinberg and Bob Lane) plus 12 staff. Its job will be to advise on:

• a distribution of regional affordability targets that would be consistent with the government’s overall ambitions for housing affordability and supply
• the methodology for translating regional affordability targets into housing numbers
• its assessment of the implications of the recommended regional affordability targets for the level and broad distribution of future house building in the region.

If that sounds like a tall order, that’s because it is. In an age in which house prices are rising fastest in “low-demand” areas and previous market assumptions have been disrupted by the boom in buy to let and inward migration into the south east, the unit will have its work cut out.

A COMMITTEE OF MPs has backed government plans to levy a new planning gain supplement (PGS) on new development while retaining a scaled-back system of section 106 planning obligations for new homes.

A report (go here to download it as a pdf) from the communities and local government select committee also recommended that the government use planning guidance and target setting to ensure that the supply affordable housing is not jeopardised in favour of revenue raising. They also called for local authorities:

• to be given the power to require contributions to affordable housing from a much wider range of developments, not just residential ones
• to be able to use PGS money for affordable homes where appropriate.

The MPs also called for more research into the huge gap between the value of section 106 commitments agreed under planning approvals and the value actually delivered. In 2003/04 developers entered into obligations worth £1.2 billion but only delivered £600 million. One reason for this is a big variation in performance in different parts of the country.

The committee rejected calls for certain types of development to be exempt from the PGS, arguing that this would lead to market distortions. This will disappoint the National Housing Federation, which had argued that housing association schemes should be exempt.

OUTPUT OF AFFORDABLE HOMES this year will still be lower than the number Labour achieved in its first year in office, housing minister Yvetter Cooper confirmed in a parliamentary written answer yesterday.

The total in 2007/08 is forecast to be 47,263 compared to 47,269 in 1997/98. Output in 1996/97, the last year of John Major’s Conservative government, was 56,506. The totals include the Housing Corporations affordable housing programme, local authority social housing grant, the starter home initiative and local authority programmes.

Looking to the future, Cooper said:

‘The number of homes to be provided from 2008-09 will be the subject of the Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 in which the provision of social rented homes will be a priority.’

However, it will have to be a big priority if output is to reach the level Labour inherited. The balance of the programme has changed radically in the last decade. In 1997/98 low-cost home ownership made up 15% of it (7,152 homes) but in 2007/08 that proportion will be 41% (19,263).

That means output of social rented homes will need to increase by 43% in 2008/09 to match the 40,000 achieved in 1997/98.

These are the figures from the written answer:

Go here for a breakdown of the low-cost home ownership programme (scroll down to the answer on house sales).

IF ANYONE NEEDED reminding that house prices can go down as well as up, they should take a look at a new report published today by the accountancy giant Price Waterhouse Coopers.

In contrast to more bullish recent forecasts, The UK Economic Outlook predicts a one in three risk of a UK house price fall by 2010. The report uses a new model of house price uncertainty based on the statistical technique known appropriately enough as the Monte Carlo simulation. This involves three scenarios that have different assumptions about the degree of structural change in the market over the last decade.

PwC’s favoured ‘main scenario’ puts the risk of price falls at one in three. Under the ‘optimistic scenario’ the risk falls to just 6%. But in the ‘historic parameters scenario’ (which assumes prices are significantly above their long-term equilibrium level) the risk is a sobering two in three.

IT’s NOT OFTEN that the Sun and the Guardian agree on anything but the Abbey’s five-times earnings mortgage offer has got them both in sceptical mood this morning.

A leader in the Guardian concludes:

‘For a decade, property ownership has seemed a risk-free way for people to get rich. But buyers should remember that the most generous lenders have a habit of turning nasty when the monthly mortgage payment is missed.’

Ian King in The Sun predicts strong demand for the new product and says other lenders are likely to follow suit, with some offering mortgages worth 25% more than the value of their home. But he also warns us to ‘beware of the more-gage’ at a time when interest rates are expected to rise.

Still, anyone in real trouble can simply turn to the adverts that helpfully run alongside his story on the web. ‘Debtbuster Mortgage’ anyone? If you have ‘Bad credit? Get an instant personal loan online’.

LATEST: The Yorkshire Building Society points out its Accord Mortgages subsidiary has been offering five-times salary mortgages since February. Go here for details.

WHERE WILL IT STOP? The housing market is on fire and there seems to be no shortage of people willing to pour petrol on it.

The FT reports this morning that Abbey, one of the UK’s largest mortgage lenders, is planning to lend homebuyers up to five times their single or joint salaries. This is the same Abbey that published research a few days ago that one in eight people cannot afford to get on the property ladder.

Abbey is not on its own – last week two other lenders increased their income multiples to 4.5 – but it is also relaxing its other lending criteria, including those for approving mortgages without proof of income. Abbey spokesman Dave Stewart told the BBC:

‘Our customers are continually asking for more money to purchase the house they want and subsequently we looked into the affordability ratings of certain people. We found that people could afford to pay out for bigger mortgages but there just wasn’t anything on the market at the moment offering them what they needed.’