ROOF Blog

House prices are up 0.1% compared to February, the smallest margin ever recorded at this time of the year, when prices have never fallen month on month, according to property website Rightmove. The near standstill in prices has fuelled concerns that a decline in the housing market could lead to a slowdown in the wider economy as unemployment, public sector spending cuts and potentially higher interest rates hit the consumer. Both Nationwide and Halifax reported house price falls in February. Nationwide said average prices dipped 1% to £161,320, ending a run of nine consecutive monthly rises. Halifax reported an even sharper fall of 1.5%, with average house prices dropping to £166, 857. It remains unclear whether February’s data was a blip caused by the severe weather conditions in the UK or a more long term trend.

The British housing market is improving at a faster rate than property prices across most of the rest of Europe, a report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has found. House prices rose in only five European countries, including Britain, during 2009. But other countries continued to suffer a sharp market correction, with prices diving by up to 53%. RICS warned that countries with vulnerable economies would continue to suffer from price falls and depressed markets during 2010. Norway led the revival, with property prices in the country rising by 12% during 2009, followed by Finland at 8% and Sweden at 7%. Britain was the fourth best performing country, with the average cost of a home ending the year 1% higher than it started it, although house prices had risen by 10% from their lowest point in April.

With a growing number of Americans facing negative equity and becoming ever more pessimistic about the prospects of house prices recovering to make up that difference, they are surrendering to foreclosure even though they can still meet the repayments, according to reports. The trend is clear in recent rates of non-payment, or delinquency, on mortgages. In January, delinquencies on outstanding ‘jumbo’ mortgages - big loans granted to people with good credit histories - rose to 9.6 per cent, according to Fitch Ratings. Many of these problem loans, which have gone unserviced for 60 days or more, were taken out after 2005. And nonpayment is increasing not just in hard-hit states such as California: in New York, Florida, Virginia and New Jersey they are all on the rise too.

Most Britons believe that house prices will rise this year as the country awaits official confirmation that the worst peacetime recession is finally over. A survey by Rightmove found that 53 per cent of those in the UK believe house prices will rise over the next 12 months, compared with just 10 per cent at the beginning of last year. The sharp upswing in confidence about one of the worst affected sectors during the recession comes prior to the publication of figures tomorrow that are expected to show the economy started growing again in the last quarter of 2009. Economists are predicting that the Office for National Statistics will say that gross domestic product increased by 0.4 per cent, which would mark the official end of the recession following six quarters of contraction.

A new website - data.gov.uk - allows people to access 2,500 sets of official data, some of it never released before, from across Government departments. They include everything from crime rates, house prices and tidal predictions, to the numbers of people issued with antisocial behaviour orders living in people’s areas. Its creator Sir Tim Berners-Lee, who is credited with founding the internet 20 years ago, admitted the scale of the information available, which will eventually be searchable by postcode, will mean that social inequalities between different areas will quickly become apparent. There was a risk that some areas would seem like ‘ghettoes’ compared to others, he said, although this was not necessarily a bad thing as it would create pressure on politicians to spend money on improving the worse-off areas.

The number of first-time buyers has dropped to its lowest point in a decade despite a significant rise in the number of affordable homes over the past year, according to figures released by the Halifax. Tighter mortgage lending criteria, recent price rises in some areas and lack of money for a deposit meant that an estimated 185,000 first-time buyers entered the market in 2009, four per cent fewer than in 2008 and just over a third of the 532,000 who bought when prices were soaring in 2002. These combined obstacles have pushed up the average age of a first-time buyer from 29 to 30, while the typical age of those buying without financial help from family or friends has risen to 36 from 33 in late 2007.

Bargain-hunters returned to the house building sector yesterday after a leading broker anticipated healthy gains for investors over the next year.

Citigroup laid the foundations for a recovery after turning buyer of Redrow, up 8½p to 131p, Barratt Developments, 6½p higher at 116p and Taylor Wimpey, 1¾p better at 35½p.

The sector has lost a fifth of its value over the past quarter over consumer spending fears for next year, but house prices, mortgage applications and housing transactions data indicate a more positive story, according to Citigroup, which reckoned shares could rebound at least 30 per cent.

The monthly Halifax house price index shows that house prices jumped by a bigger than expected 1.4 per cent in November, spurred on by higher demand and a shortage of properties for sale.

The increase was the fifth successive monthly rise with prices more than four per cent higher over the first 11 months of the year. The average cost of a house in the UK is now £167,664.

However, that is still 1.6 per cent cheaper than this time last year, and the recovery in house prices that we’ve seen in the past six months is unlikely to be sustained next year, analysts warned.

Seema Shah, a property economist at Capital Economics, said: ‘With the economic recovery likely to be lacklustre, unemployment set to rise and household incomes likely to be under downward pressure from pay freezes, house price falls remain the most likely outcome next year.’

Greg and Diane Horoski bought their home before the boom and, when house prices soared, increased their mortgage to finance a small business.

Interest rates rose, health bills poured in, and then the housing market crashed so that they ended up owing thousands of dollars more than their bungalow was worth.

Yesterday they went to court in New York expecting to be thrown out – but instead they emerged with their debt of $500,000 (£300,000) written off and a mortgage-free home.

Judge Jeffrey Spinner ruled that their lender’s behaviour had been ‘harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive to the extent that it must be appropriately sanctioned so as to deter it from imposing further mortifying abuse’.

The decision, which is to be the subject of an appeal, offers possible relief for some of the 7.5 million Americans who are behind with their mortgages and face losing their homes.

One in seven homes in America is now in the process of being repossessed as many families find it impossible to pay off the high-interest mortgages that were handed out in abundance when the property market was at its height.

The Conservative Party would scrap home information packs (HIPs) ‘in a matter of weeks’ after coming to power, the Shadow Housing Minister Grant Shapps said yesterday.

The pledge follows claims by estate agents that the packs are impeding a housing market recovery, as potential sellers regard the typical cost of between £300 and £400 as another disincentive at a time when homeowners are already reluctant to move.

One of the reasons that property prices have risen since April is that the amount of stock on the market is low. Mr Shapps said: ‘House prices are rising because supply is restricted. HIPs have not helped.

‘The main priority is to scrap them. They are easy to suspend and there are emergency powers we can use to do so. This can happen very quickly. HIPs will be gone in a matter of weeks.’