ROOF Blog

House prices fell in the North and the West Midlands in December as market activity dampened, exposing those regions where the recovery has been weakest. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), last month’s figures showed five per cent more surveyors in the West Midlands reporting prices falling rather than rising, and seven per cent more in the North. The industry body added the East Midlands and Northern Ireland to its list of areas at risk of further immediate falls. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said: ‘These regions have been among the weakest for months. The best we can say is that they have stabilised lately.’

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee on Thursday voted to keep rates unchanged at 0.5 per cent and to continue with its £200bn quantitative easing programme as further signs of stabilisation emerged across the economy. The decision was widely expected, with the Bank having signalled it intends to make big decisions on monetary policy only when the forecasts in its quarterly inflation report are available. February, therefore, could see the first change in the Bank’s monetary stance since its November decision to increase the scale of quantitative easing –- which has taken the form of purchases mostly of government debt, funded by the creation of money – from £175bn to £200bn. With about £7bn left of that left, most economists expect the Bank to halt the programme, having already slowed the pace from £75bn every three months to £50bn earlier last year to £25bn in November.

House prices defied the economic downturn last year to rise 1.1 per cent, boosted by a second-half surge in demand from homebuyers. The annual increase was the first rise over 12 months that Halifax, the mortgage lender, has recorded since March 2008. The latest rebound continued in December, with prices rising by 1 per cent over the month, the sixth monthly rise in a row, taking house prices to an average of £169,042 — 9.4 per cent higher than in April last year, when the market bottomed out. Despite the apparent buoyancy of the market, Halifax, now part of Lloyds Banking Group, gave a cautious outlook for the year ahead, warning that it expected house prices to remain flat during 2010.

Construction activity fell in December for the 22nd month in a row as a surge in housing was offset by a sharp decline in commercial building. The construction purchasing managers’ index, where any level below 50 signals a drop in business activity, rose slightly to 47.1 from 47 last month. ‘December was another disappointing month for the UK construction sector. Unlike other parts of the economy, it seems unable to escape the shackles of the recession,’ said David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply. ‘Purchasing managers painted a bleak picture as firms suffered from reduced client demand and falls in new business.’

Britain’s leading economists are almost unanimous in their view that house prices are still too high. Of the 70 who answered the question, 13 believed residential property prices were now fairly valued, while 55 said they were not and two did not express a view. The judgment that the housing market remains overinflated sits uncomfortably alongside extensive evidence that prices are rising rapidly. But the general view is that the recent surge in prices reflects low interest rates and low levels of supply - a situation that cannot last for long. House prices are also likely to be hit by weak income growth and still weak bank lending, economists argue.

The monthly Halifax house price index shows that house prices jumped by a bigger than expected 1.4 per cent in November, spurred on by higher demand and a shortage of properties for sale.

The increase was the fifth successive monthly rise with prices more than four per cent higher over the first 11 months of the year. The average cost of a house in the UK is now £167,664.

However, that is still 1.6 per cent cheaper than this time last year, and the recovery in house prices that we’ve seen in the past six months is unlikely to be sustained next year, analysts warned.

Seema Shah, a property economist at Capital Economics, said: ‘With the economic recovery likely to be lacklustre, unemployment set to rise and household incomes likely to be under downward pressure from pay freezes, house price falls remain the most likely outcome next year.’

A member of the Bank of England’s interest rate setting committee has called for the introduction of a tax on housing that would act as an ‘automatic stabiliser’ to help avoid real estate bubbles like the one that helped to cause the financial crisis.

Adam Posen, an American academic and external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, countered suggestions that central banks should have been quicker to raise rates in the run up to the crisis, arguing that tighter monetary policy would have had little effect in halting bubbles.

Citing the greater damage caused by housing slumps than by collapses in prices of other assets such as equities or commercial property following booms, Mr Posen proposed that new tools need to be created in order to target the residential real estate market in particular.

Greg and Diane Horoski bought their home before the boom and, when house prices soared, increased their mortgage to finance a small business.

Interest rates rose, health bills poured in, and then the housing market crashed so that they ended up owing thousands of dollars more than their bungalow was worth.

Yesterday they went to court in New York expecting to be thrown out – but instead they emerged with their debt of $500,000 (£300,000) written off and a mortgage-free home.

Judge Jeffrey Spinner ruled that their lender’s behaviour had been ‘harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive to the extent that it must be appropriately sanctioned so as to deter it from imposing further mortifying abuse’.

The decision, which is to be the subject of an appeal, offers possible relief for some of the 7.5 million Americans who are behind with their mortgages and face losing their homes.

One in seven homes in America is now in the process of being repossessed as many families find it impossible to pay off the high-interest mortgages that were handed out in abundance when the property market was at its height.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has cut its forecast for the number of repossessions this year to 48,000.

Having anticipated 75,000 repossessions in 2009 in last year’s housing market forecasts, the forecast had already been revised down to 65,000 in June, but is now being cut again in recognition of lender forbearance, government measures and the beneficial effect of continuing low interest rates which are helping most borrowers facing difficulty to keep their homes.

Commenting on the latest arrears data and on the new forecasts, CML director general Michael Coogan said: ‘In terms of new lending next year, we expect a modest increase.

‘But it is difficult to see the case for a dramatic upturn in the absence of significant improvement in the wider economic picture. There is a risk that public spending cuts and higher taxes could choke off recovery. So, although we have become more optimistic, we remain cautious about market prospects.’

The immediate prospects for Britain’s economy are grimmer than in any previous forecast and output is unlikely to revert to pre-crisis levels before 2011, the Bank of England said in a stern warning yesterday.

Presenting the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, the Governor, Mervyn King, was at pains to stress that, while the economy might soon return to modest growth, that was not necessarily a cause for ‘bunting and celebration’.

The fall in GDP of about six per cent had been severe and the ‘prolonged period of balance-sheet adjustment’ now beginning would hold back growth, Mr King said, adding that output was ‘unlikely, at least for a considerable period, to return to a level consistent with a continuation of its pre-crisis trend’.

The economy, he said, had ‘only just started on the road to recovery’ and the Bank believed that inflation was ‘on balance more likely to be below the target than above it for most of the forecast period, though by the end the risks are broadly balanced’.