ROOF Blog

A Conservative government would curb immigration to stop the population of the United Kingdom reaching the forecast 70 million, David Cameron said yesterday. He said net migration to the UK each year should be limited to ‘tens of thousands’ rather than ‘hundreds of thousands’, adding: ‘I’m in favour of immigration, we’ve benefited from immigration, but I think the pressures, particularly on our public services, have been very great.’ The number of people migrating to the UK minus those emigrating was 237,000 in 2007 and 163,000 in 2008.

House prices defied the economic downturn last year to rise 1.1 per cent, boosted by a second-half surge in demand from homebuyers. The annual increase was the first rise over 12 months that Halifax, the mortgage lender, has recorded since March 2008. The latest rebound continued in December, with prices rising by 1 per cent over the month, the sixth monthly rise in a row, taking house prices to an average of £169,042 — 9.4 per cent higher than in April last year, when the market bottomed out. Despite the apparent buoyancy of the market, Halifax, now part of Lloyds Banking Group, gave a cautious outlook for the year ahead, warning that it expected house prices to remain flat during 2010.

Figures in last week’s pre-Budget report reveal 60,000 low-income families now face paying 90 per cent of any earnings directly to the taxman.

The number of affected families is up from 30,000 last year and is forecast to rise again to 70,000 next year.

The very high tax rates arise from complex rules that mean low income families have their benefits slashed if they take up work.

These so-called marginal tax rates – far higher than those faced by top earners – are blamed for discouraging thousands from seeking work.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has cut its forecast for the number of repossessions this year to 48,000.

Having anticipated 75,000 repossessions in 2009 in last year’s housing market forecasts, the forecast had already been revised down to 65,000 in June, but is now being cut again in recognition of lender forbearance, government measures and the beneficial effect of continuing low interest rates which are helping most borrowers facing difficulty to keep their homes.

Commenting on the latest arrears data and on the new forecasts, CML director general Michael Coogan said: ‘In terms of new lending next year, we expect a modest increase.

‘But it is difficult to see the case for a dramatic upturn in the absence of significant improvement in the wider economic picture. There is a risk that public spending cuts and higher taxes could choke off recovery. So, although we have become more optimistic, we remain cautious about market prospects.’

The immediate prospects for Britain’s economy are grimmer than in any previous forecast and output is unlikely to revert to pre-crisis levels before 2011, the Bank of England said in a stern warning yesterday.

Presenting the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, the Governor, Mervyn King, was at pains to stress that, while the economy might soon return to modest growth, that was not necessarily a cause for ‘bunting and celebration’.

The fall in GDP of about six per cent had been severe and the ‘prolonged period of balance-sheet adjustment’ now beginning would hold back growth, Mr King said, adding that output was ‘unlikely, at least for a considerable period, to return to a level consistent with a continuation of its pre-crisis trend’.

The economy, he said, had ‘only just started on the road to recovery’ and the Bank believed that inflation was ‘on balance more likely to be below the target than above it for most of the forecast period, though by the end the risks are broadly balanced’.