ROOF Blog

The number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell for the third month in a row during February as the housing market continued to show signs of slowing down, figures revealed today. A total of 47,094 loans were approved for people buying a home during the month, 21% down on the recent peak reached in November last year, according to the Bank of England. However, the Bank’s figures also showed a rise in unsecured lending during the month, with consumers taking on more debt through credit cards, personal loans and other forms of credit than at any time for 15 months.

Fears of a double-dip recession and a sterling crisis in the run-up to the election were raised last night amid news of collapsing investment in British industry and a warning from one of the world’s leading financiers that the pound could plummet within weeks. The pound fell sharply on the foreign exchange markets after a day of grim economic news which saw an admission from RBS that it had missed government targets for business lending, a downgrading of the UK growth prospects by the European commission and a warning from the CBI that consumer spending was likely to remain weak ahead of polling day.

The end of stamp duty relief at the start of the year has helped cause a substantial dip in mortgage lending during January, with just £8.02 billion lent during the month, the lowest level since March 2001. This compares with an average monthly amount of about £18 billion during 2007. The data, released by the British Bankers’ association, are the latest figures to suggest the economy will endure a slow recovery, after signs of optimism at the end of last year. A leading member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee warned today that the housing market could be ‘weak’ during 2010.

Gross mortgage lending in January fell to the lowest level in 10 years as buyers were deterred by the end of the stamp duty holiday, figures showed this week – but experts have warned that lending could decline further as banks lose government funding support. According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), gross mortgages totalled just £9.1bn in January, down 32 per cent from the £13.4bn in December. This is the lowest monthly total since February 2000, when gross lending was £7.9bn. While a seasonal fall is usual between December and January, the CML said the drop was ‘larger than average’ due to higher purchase activity in December, as borrowers rushed to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday on properties valued less than £175,000.

Both the CML and the Bank of England agreed that mortgage lending edged up again in the last months of the year, against the usual seasonal downturn. The CML reported that gross mortgage lending reached an estimated £13.7bn in December, up 14 per cent on November. A rush of sales before the end of the stamp duty holiday and the prospective hike in VAT accounted for much of the improvement.

Britain’s leading economists are almost unanimous in their view that house prices are still too high. Of the 70 who answered the question, 13 believed residential property prices were now fairly valued, while 55 said they were not and two did not express a view. The judgment that the housing market remains overinflated sits uncomfortably alongside extensive evidence that prices are rising rapidly. But the general view is that the recent surge in prices reflects low interest rates and low levels of supply - a situation that cannot last for long. House prices are also likely to be hit by weak income growth and still weak bank lending, economists argue.

Mortgage lending fell by 10 per cent during November as the market suffered its traditional seasonal slowdown, figures showed today. A total of £12bn was advanced during the month, down from £13.3bn in October and 14 per cent less than in November last year, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). The group said a modest decline was typically seen between October and November, although the 10 per cent fall was ‘a little larger’ than normal. But it added that market conditions were holding steady and it did not expect much change during the coming months. The CML’s economist, Paul Samter, said: ‘There could be a modest decline in underlying house buying activity in early 2010 due to the stamp duty holiday ending, with activity ‘bunching’ over the last few months of 2009.’

Evidence is growing that the worst is over in the recession-hit property market following a string of cautiously optimistic assessments from the UK’s leading housebuilders.

Persimmon set the tone this month when it predicted a moderate recovery. Barratt, the UK’s largest housebuilder, and Bovis Homes echoed that sentiment with similarly upbeat forecasts.

The number of new homes being built rose to its highest level for over a year in the three months to October, with work starting on 25,000 new properties, an increase of 27 per cent compared with the same period last year.

However, housebuilders are reluctant to be too bold over the prospects of a sustained recovery because of the fragility of the market and the uncertainty over the continuing availability of mortgages.

‘We are way ahead of where we were this time last year, but we’re not out of the woods yet and there could still be plenty of problems for the industry were the banks to pull back lending,’ said Bovis’ chief executive David Ritchie.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reported yesterday that buy-to-let lending rose by 10 per cent in the three months to September, compared with the previous three months, after a period of near-hibernation for landlords who were hit particularly hard by the mortgage drought.

The CML said that buy-to-let demand for new purchases was ‘appreciably stronger’ than for remortgages, amid continuing lending constraints that force landlords to stay on their existing deals.

The CML pointed out that although the slight uptick in buy-to-let lending was welcome, it was from a low base.

Michael Coogan, director-general of the CML, said: ‘At this stage the recovery is modest, but the figures show that buy-to-let is here to stay.’

Northern Rock has had its busiest quarter as a mortgage lender since the credit crunch two years ago, lending £1bn in the three months to the end of September.

But the nationalised lender, which is to be split into a ‘good’ and ‘bad’ bank before being sold off, is continuing to suffer a rise in the number of customers falling behind on their mortgage payments.

In the third quarter 4.11 per cent of its mortgage customers were three months or more late on their repayments compared with an industry average, compiled by the Council of Mortgage Lenders, of 2.42 per cent.

The lender blames its problems with arrears on the Together product sold by the previous management which allowed customers to borrow up to 125 per cent of their value of their home.

Northern Rock chief executive Gary Hoffman stressed that the bank was trying to avoid repossessing the homes of customers facing payment difficulties:

‘We continue to invest a lot of effort in our approach to debt management and to providing the best possible support we can in all circumstances’, he said.